For New Readers
I know I’m getting a lot of fresh eyes on here lately because of the draft previews, and I just wanted to do a quick overview of what we offer here.
First, your best resources for learning what we do here are the columns to the right of the entries.
The 2010 MLB Draft Notebook is a $9.99 PDF product that will be a go-to resource for knowing players that are available in the draft this year. It will include over 750 writeups on individual players. To read more about it, click here.
If you’re interested in pre-ordering it, you can do so here. The advantages of pre-ordering are that you’ll likely receive your copy a few days early and that you’ll be invited to an exclusive all questions answered chat the week before the draft.
If you’re new to scouting terms and are wondering about a few of the things I talk about in entries here, try reading the scouting glossary. I’ll be updating it with new terms as we go along. It’s a good resource if you’re not sure of what I’m saying when I say a guy has a 55 arm.
In terms of actual content, most of you have come to this site through my team-by-team draft previews, which are another feature in the MLB Draft Notebook. They’ll be freshly updated in late May and added to the Notebook then. As for now, you can see the schedule for team-by-team draft preview releases, as well as links to ones already published when you click here. That’s where most of the content will be for the next five weeks, though weekend columns such as the scouting glossary will be coming every weekend.
Look around, and welcome to MLB Bonus Baby!
2010 Draft Preview – Cleveland Indians
The sixth part of my draft preview series focuses on the Cleveland Indians and their scouting director Brad Grant.
Owner: Lawrence Dolan, bought club in 2000
General Manager: Mark Shapiro, first season was 2002
Scouting Director: Brad Grant, first draft was 2008
Looking Back
2008 Draft: $7.0 Million Budget
1. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC (NC), #29 Overall: Chisenhall wasn’t considered a hands-down first-round talent, but he had risen on draft boards late due to his plus hit tool. Shortstop wasn’t ever going to be his long-term position, but Grant believed in Chisenhall’s bat enough to make Chisenhall his first selection as scouting director. Following players selected: Casey Kelly, Shooter Hunt, Jake Odorizzi. Signing bonus: $1,100,000.
2. Trey Haley, RHP, Central Heights HS (TX), #76 Overall: Haley was considered a possible first-round arm coming into the spring, but he looked tired and unimpressive at the wrong time to be falling off the radar. Grant called Haley’s name with the hope that he’d turn back into his previous form, though most thought he had fallen down to a 4th-7th round talent. Following players selected: Derrik Gibson, Jake Jefferies, Jordy Mercer. Signing bonus: $1,250,000.
3. Cord Phelps, 2B, Stanford, #107 Overall: Phelps wasn’t considered to be a very good pro prospect, though his bat and possible versatility meant he might have had a future as a utility infielder. However, Grant called his name perhaps four to seven rounds earlier than most thought Phelps would be picked. Following players selected: Kyle Weiland, Ty Morrison, Chase d’Arnaud. Signing bonus: $327,000.
4. David Roberts, RHP, Long Beach State, #141 Overall: Roberts was a little-known reliever at Long Beach State before Grant called his name on the first day of the 2008 draft. He had solid stuff that looked like it might max out at the setup reliever level, but there was hope he might improve with experience into more of a weapon. Following players selected: Pete Hissey, Mike Sheridan, Justin Wilson. Signing bonus: $200,000.
5. Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan, #171 Overall: Putnam was a very desirable name entering the 2008 draft, and you could have made the case that Putnam was the best player Grant picked on the first day back on draft day in June 2008. He had a good assortment of pitchers, and he featured mid-rotation upside when at his best, though he slipped due to concerns about work ethic and true ceiling. Following players selected: Ryan Westmoreland, Shane Dyer, Robbie Grossman. Signing bonus: $600,000.
Other Notable Selections: LHP Eric Berger (8th), Arizona, $125K bonus; LHP T.J. House (16th), Picayune Memorial HS (MS), $750K bonus
2009 Draft: $4.7 Million Budget
1. Alex White, RHP, North Carolina, #15 Overall: White was the top college pitcher behind Stephen Strasburg entering the 2009 draft season, and despite a solid junior campaign, he fell down draft boards due to his price tag as a Boras client and concerns that his mechanics didn’t fit for a starter. He has number two upside, and this was a solid find in the middle of the first round for Grant. Following players selected: Bobby Borchering, A.J. Pollock, Chad James. Signing bonus: $2,250,000.
2. Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State, #63 Overall: Kipnis was one of the best college hitters statistically in the 2009 season, but he was considered more of a second to third round talent due to his age (22) and lack of power. His hit tool was legit, and this was a solid pick, as Kipnis profiled as a quick mover through the system. Following players selected: Marc Krauss, Garrett Gould, Bryan Berglund. Signing bonus: $575,000.
3. Joe Gardner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara, #94 Overall: Gardner looked like a third to fifth round prospect after relieving at Santa Barbara. However, he had a few characteristics that profiled as a starting pitcher, and a few teams saw that value. This was a solid pick, and the Indians are expected to develop Gardner as a starter. Following players selected: Keon Broxton, Brett Wallach, Marquise Cooper. Signing bonus: $363,000.
4. Kyle Bellows, 3B, San Jose State, #125 Overall: Bellows came on strong during his junior year, and most teams looked at him as a possible utility player in the future. His bat looked like it would be average in the long run, but his glove looked like a solid asset at any level. He might not have profiled as a starter, but signing a possible plus glove for fourth round slot has its advantages. Following players selected: David Nick, Angelo Songco, Dan Mahoney. Signing bonus: $230,000.
5. Austin Adams, RHP, Faulkner (AL), #155 Overall: Adams profiles as one of those pitchers that will be better as a pro than as an amateur. He has plus-plus stuff in the form of a hard fastball-curve combo, and he also has above-average athleticism, a good predictor for ability to develop a repeatable windup at the pro level. This was a solid pick, as Adams was a senior sign that signed for under slot. Following players selected: Ryan Wheeler, J.T. Wise, Chase Austin. Signing bonus: $70,000.
Other Notable Selections: OF Jordan Henry (7th), Ole Miss, $100K bonus
Brad Grant took over the scouting director position from longtime scouting director John Mirabelli following Mirabelli’s 2007 draft haul that included Beau Mills at the top. Like a number of scouting directors these days, Mirabelli was promoted out of the scouting director job to the title of Assistant General Manager for Scouting Operations. This put Mirabelli in charge of scouting both in North America and internationally, and Grant moved up from his assistant scouting director position to handle the scouting director position directly. Mirabelli’s influence is still immense, so pointing only to Grant’s drafts is a little irresponsible, but as Grant puts more drafts into his portfolio, he gains more independence, and having been Mirabelli’s heir apparent for years prior to his promotion, Grant has a good deal of autonomy to do his job. As a matter of fact, Grant also worked under current Arizona Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes in Byrnes’ only season as scouting director in Cleveland in 1999, and Mirabelli only moved in as Grant’s boss starting in 2000. It’s easy to see that Grant has plenty of experience to handle a draft, having been in the front office for scouting for over ten years now. Looking at Grant’s trends in his first couple of drafts, it’s obvious that Grant and the Indians’ front office highly prefer college players. Haley and T.J. House represent the only significant investments in preps at this stage, and there has not been any significant investment in prep bats. That looks likely to continue at this point. I wouldn’t rule out any prep arms for them, as their investments in 2008 were significant indeed. However, they favor collegiate players almost exclusively, so I’ll focus on that trend. In addition, they look to the West more often than any other region. Phelps, Roberts, Berger, Kipnis, Gardner, and Bellows all represent players in the western half of the country. Expect more of that in 2010. Finally, expect a balanced mix of arms and bats if history repeats itself, and I like Grant’s willingness to spread the investment around the diamond. He does a solid job of finding talent from both sides of the equation.
In terms of draft budgeting, the Indians have spent about an average amount in total in Grant’s two drafts. 2009 was a little weak in terms of draft budgeting, and White represented the lone overslot signee. I’m not ready to say 2009 represents any meaningful trend towards lesser draft investment, as Grant and company might have simply seen the weak 2009 class as less worthy of high investment compared to future years. We might see a healthy improvement this year, especially since the Indians own such a high first-round pick in 2010. They own picks 5, 55, 87, 120, and every 30 picks after that, provided that Rod Barajas signs a Major League contract with another club before the draft. I would expect another year with investment near the $7 million level that we saw in 2008, perhaps closer to $6 million. For example, Matt Hobgood, last year’s fifth overall pick, received just over $2.4 million, and slots should be expected to be slightly raised this year, so slot $2.5 million in there. Going slot through all those picks should yield about the same investment as last year’s draft. However, considering there is slightly more depth in this year’s draft, I’d expect more investment. I have no objective reason to believe this, just intuition that the Indians won’t budget low amounts on back-to-back years. There’s also the possibility that they’re saving for the 2011 draft, but there’s no guarantee they’ll be picking as high in 2011 as the fifth overall pick they have now.
Connecting the Indians to specific players, I think we’ll see a few possibilities as we sit here in February. The first possibility is that the Indians are intent on paying slot to their fifth overall pick. In that situation, I believe we’ll see the Indians seriously consider Zack Cox, Christian Colon, Deck McGuire, Chris Sale, and Drew Pomeranz. All these college players would almost certainly take slot money, which should be around $2.5 million, given that they have expected years in the 2010. I have Cox going to the Indians in my latest mock, and they didn’t have the possibility of taking Colon. However, I’m thinking more and more that the trio of McGuire, Sale, and Pomeranz make more sense for them. McGuire in particular looks quite appetizing there, and that’s who I had going to them in my fall mock draft. Keep that group of names in mind, though I can add names in there as we go. Looking to the second round, I’m looking at Micah Gibbs, Todd Cunningham, Sam Dyson, Derek Dietrich, and Addison Reed of San Diego State. Beyond that, I see Rob Segedin, Kevin Rhoderick, Dixon Anderson, Josh Spence, and maybe Victor Sanchez if he has a good year coming back off shoulder issues in 2009. Just remember these names for now, and when I update the draft previews in May, I’ll come back to these names as a reference.
*Bonus information came from BA.
What do you guys think? What will the Indians do?
Note on Royals Draft Preview
Just to let everyone know, I’ve edited the Royals draft preview, as I forgot to include one of J.J. Picollo’s final selections, that being 2003 draftee Asher Demme. I cut off the info around 2002, mainly because I was thinking that Picollo had been promoted after the 2002 draft, but he was actually promoted after the 2004 draft, though the 2004 draft didn’t bear any early-round picks from Picollo’s area in the Braves’ draft. Demme represents Picollo’s last top ten round sign as an area scout.
The edited version, and the rest of the draft previews and the schedule in which future draft previews will come out is posted in the far right column, and that will be a permanent link to be able to see when your team’s draft preview is scheduled to appear.
2010 Draft Preview – Arizona Diamondbacks
The fifth part of my draft preview series focuses on the Arizona Diamondbacks and their scouting director Tom Allison.
Owner: Partnership bought club in 2004
General Manager: Josh Byrnes, first season was 2006
Scouting Director: Tom Allison, first draft was 2007
Looking Back
2007 Draft: $5.1 Million Budget
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (IN), #9 Overall: Parker was in the running to be the top prep pitcher selected in the 2007 draft, and Arizona made that come true when they popped him ninth overall. He featured one of the quickest arms in recent draft memory, and this was a quality first pick by first-time scouting director Allison. Following players selected: Madison Bumgarner, Phillippe Aumont, Matt Dominguez. Signing bonus: $2,100,000.
2. Wes Roemer, RHP, Cal State Fullerton, #50 Overall: Roemer was expected to be taken anywhere from the supplemental first round to the mid-second round, and Arizona made him their first supplemental pick. He was really a pitchability college righty with good command, and though he didn’t have much upside, he was expected to move quickly through their system. Following players selected: Charlie Culberson, Matt Mangini, Kyle Lotzkar. Signing bonus: $620,000.
3. Ed Easley, C, Mississippi State, #61 Overall: Easley became Arizona’s second supplemental first round pick, though the majority of scouts saw him as a second to fourth round talent. He was a solid college hitter with average catching skills, and he wasn’t expected to turn into anything above an average to below-average Major League catcher. Following players selected: Ryan Dent, Cory Luebke, Daniel Payne. Signing bonus: $531,000.
4. Barry Enright, RHP, Pepperdine, #73 Overall: Enright was of a similar profile to Roemer, and he was expected to go somewhere in this range as a second round pick. He featured an average to below-average assortment of pitches that looked like back-end of the rotation stuff at best, though he was also likely to move quickly through the minor league system. Following players selected: Grant Desme, Denny Almonte, Mike Stanton. Signing bonus: $441,000.
5. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, #103 Overall: Navarro was heralded as a potential plus fielder out of Puerto Rico, and he was expected to go anywhere from the second to fourth rounds, making this a solid pick all-around. His hitting needed work, but there wasn’t expected to be any rush on him to get through the system for his glove. Following players selected: Scott Carroll, Danny Carroll, Jameson Smith. Signing bonus: $333,000.
Other Notable Selections: RHP Bryan Augenstein (7th), Florida, $120K bonus
2008 Draft: $4.5 Million Budget
1. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona, #26 Overall: Schlereth was a late riser up draft boards in the spring of 2008, and even late in the spring he was expected to go in round two or three. However, Arizona saw the potential in his devastating stuff, and he was looked at as a future closer. He has now been successfully traded for Major League talent. Following players selected: Carlos Gutierrez, Gerrit Cole, Lonnie Chisenhall. Signing bonus: $1,330,000.
2. Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana, #43 Overall: Miley was seen as a supplemental first round talent by many clubs due to his average-to-plus stuff from the lefty side of the mound. He wasn’t as accomplished as some of his collegiate counterparts, but he was expected to be a mid-rotation candidate if things came together. Solid pick. Following players selected: Jeremy Bleich, Bryan Price, Logan Forsythe. Signing bonus: $877,000.
3. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Long Beach State, #73 Overall: Shaw was a collegiate closer expected to continue in the relief role in the pros. He was expected to go anywhere from round two to five, and the Diamondbacks called his name on the early side of that range. He featured solid stuff that graded out as possibly a future setup man or closer’s stuff. Following players selected: Tyler Chatwood, Scott Bittle, Trey Haley. Signing bonus: $553,000.
4. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, Aptos HS (CA), #104 Overall: Eichhorn was a bit of a polarizing figure in the NoCal scouting ranks, as he looked pro caliber on some days and headed for college on others. He wasn’t particularly built for starting, and the worry was that he’d take more time than an average prep arm to get through a minor league system. He could have gone anywhere from here to the seventh round. Following players selected: Ryan Chaffee, David Adams, Cord Phelps. Signing bonus: $500,000.
5. Ryne White, OF, Purdue, #138 Overall: White was a college first baseman who Arizona drafted as an outfielder. He featured a solid hit tool and ability to control the strike zone, and some thought his floor was as a solid pinch-hitter off the bench in the NL. His name was called a few rounds earlier than expected. Following players selected: Buddy Boshers, Corban Joseph, David Roberts. Signing bonus: $213,000.
Other Notable Selections: OF Collin Cowgill (5th), Kentucky, $155K bonus
2009 Draft: $9.3 Million Budget
1. Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL), #16 Overall: Borchering was considered the best pure prep bat in the 2010 class, and when he showed improved actions at third base in the spring, he was expected to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. His raw power and hitting actions project to the all-star level. Following players selected: A.J. Pollock, Chad James, Shelby Miller. Signing bonus: $1,800,000.
2. A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame, #17 Overall: Pollock was a solid college hitter that really didn’t do anything badly in the span of his tools and skills. His hit tool was his best feature, and though he was projected to go later in the round, this was a solid pick for signability and floor. Following players selected: Chad James, Shelby Miller, Chad Jenkins. Signing bonus: $1,400,000.
3. Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA), #35 Overall: Davidson’s raw tools compare comparably with Borchering’s, and Davidson’s raw power is actually better. However, Davidson is much less refined with the bat, and though he was improved with the glove during the spring, there was still a concern he’d be a first baseman in the future. Solid pick for upside and draft position. Following players selected: Aaron Miller, James Paxton, Josh Phegley. Signing bonus: $900,000.
4. Chris Owings, SS, Gilbert HS (SC), #41 Overall: Owings shot up draft boards in the spring as a player with a solid floor and solid ceiling, too. He had average or better tools across the board, and while he was projected to go perhaps a round or two later, most didn’t question this pick. Following players selected: Garrett Richards, Brad Boxberger, Tanner Scheppers. Signing bonus: $950,000.
5. Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College, #45 Overall: Belfiore was BC’s first baseman and closer during his junior year, and only after a marathon extra-inning game in the NCAA Tournament were some scouts sure of his ability to be a starting pitcher. He was expected to go a round or more later, but instead the Diamondbacks called his name and signed him quickly. Following players selected: Matt Bashore, Kyle Heckathorn, Tyler Kehrer. Signing bonus: $725,000.
Other Notable Selections: RHP Eric Smith (2nd), Rhode Island, $605,700 bonus; OF Marc Krauss (2nd), Ohio, $550K bonus; OF Keon Broxton (3rd), Santa Fe CC (FL), $358K bonus; 2B David Nick (4th), Cypress HS (CA), $225K bonus; 1B Ryan Wheeler (5th), Loyola Marymount, $160K bonus; 3B Matt Helm (7th), Hamilton HS (AZ), $500K bonus; LHP Patrick Schuster (13th), Mitchell HS (FL), $450K bonus.
Tom Allison has had three solid drafts since becoming Arizona’s scouting director after the 2006 season, following in future Washington general manager Mike Rizzo’s footsteps. Allison has a wealth of scouting experience dating back to the mid-90s, having served as a crosschecker under Jack Zduriencik in Milwaukee for seven drafts prior to joining Josh Byrnes in Arizona. He’s still a pretty young guy at age 42, and Allison may be one of the better up-and-comers for upper-level management in all of baseball. Prior to Jarrod Parker going down with Tommy John surgery, it looked like his first two drafts were going to include successes at the top with a mix of solid players throughout the middle. Most of the other higher picks weren’t expected to have high ceilings, and while some have turned out to be less than stellar at the minor league level, players like Cowgill in 2007 and Miley in 2008 have turned into solid prospects with the ability to reach the Major League level. Looking at a few trends, it has been apparent that Allison generally likes to stick with players from the western half of the country. That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but the number of players coming from the West has outnumbered any other region quite handily. College pitchers have especially fit into that trend. Allison has mixed bats between the prep and college ranks at a normal rate, and he doesn’t seem to trend any particular direction there. The bats have typically not come from the West, but Matt Davidson, David Nick, Ryan Wheeler, and Matt Helm punched a hole through that theory pretty quickly in 2009. I like the balance on the hitting side of things, and though Parker, Eichhorn and Schuster represent the only significant investments in prep pitching under Allison’s tenure, Allison has shown a willingness to call the names of prep arms, even at the top, where Parker wasn’t the no-doubt best prospect available to most scouts, though he was a logical choice. It’s a little hard to peg Allison’s trends down, but the college pitcher from the western half of the country is a solid bet I’d take.
Looking at draft budgeting under the tenure of Allison and Byrnes is a little hard to do, since 2009 was such an aberration compared to 2007 and 2008. The previous two drafts yielded plainly average budgets, and 2007 in particular stuck to slot after the first pick of Parker. Eichhorn was the only significant over-slot investment in 2008, and that wasn’t by much. 2009 didn’t differ too much from that trend, but with five extra picks on top of their normal number of picks, the budget doubled from year to year. Borchering, Davidson, Owings, Helm, and Schuster all represented overslot bonuses handed out to draftees, though they weren’t enormous slot-busters like some teams of late have gone to in order to acquire what they consider top-tier talent. The Diamondbacks’ 2009 draft was considered one of the rousing successes in all of baseball, so saying that largely over-slot bonuses are needed to fill out a solid draft class is logically incorrect, as players like Pollock, Belfiore, Smith, Krauss, Wheeler, and Nick all represent excellent picks for slot bonuses or less. Looking at 2010, they own picks 6, 56, 88, 121, and every 30 picks following that, provided that Rod Barajas signs a Major League contract with another club before the draft. That means that Allison is faced with a new situation that he hasn’t faced before since joining Arizona. He won’t have any extra picks. On top of that, he’s drafting the highest he’s ever drafted before, and there will be more pressure than ever to succeed. I suspect the budget will drop back down into the $5-6 million range for this draft without all the extra picks, but it all depends on how much they spend for the sixth slot.
Connecting the Diamondbacks to individual players is difficult, but not impossible. I’ve connected them to A.J. Cole from Oviedo HS in Florida in two of my 2010 mocks so far, and that really fits in line with the Parker pick of 2007. Having drafted what are mainly mid-rotation to back-end starters for a few years, the club is really in need of impact talent on the hill, and Cole’s quick arm and projection are quite similar to Parker. It’s impossible to say that the Arizona front office has come to the same conclusion, but I’m not the only one to see the similarities. I don’t expect to see them go after any Boras clients, simply because whatever bonus they give out at that pick likely won’t be outrageous, as that’s completely against their method of operation in the past. If they’re looking for impact talent from the college ranks, Deck McGuire and Chris Sale definitely fit into Allison’s previous draft methods. I can see any of those players logically being picked sixth overall, both in terms of talent and in terms of fitting into Allison’s draft history. Beyond the first round, pitchers such as Justin Grimm, Daniel Tillman, Kevin Munson, and Jake Thompson all fit into Allison’s history and hitters such as Ross Wilson, Cameron Rupp, and Kolbrin Vitek might be targets. This is all speculative at this time, but I’m trying to pin some names that you should keep in mind for Arizona.
*Bonus information came from BA.
What do you guys think? What will the Diamondbacks do?
Justin O’Conner Scouting Report
The following piece can be originally seen directly at PnrScouting.
Justin O’Conner | SS/C/RHP | Cowan HS (Ind.)
Ht/Wt: 6-1/190 | B/T: R/R | Year: Senior | Born: 03/31/1992
| Scouted:
Aflac All-American High School Baseball Classic (San Diego, CA) August 16, 2009 (film) Tournament of Stars (Cary, NC) June 24, 2009 (film) National Showcase (Minneapolis, MN) June 11, 2009 (film) Randolph Southern vs. Cowan (Muncie, IN) May 12, 2009 (in attendance) Frame: O’Conner stands out physically with a mature, strong build, particularly in his upper-body. Shows smooth actions in the field; good athleticism and body control. Quick twitch actions and athleticism mean he can likely afford to add some muscle without being forced off of shortstop, though there isn’t much room left in his frame to fill-in. His actions/frame play all around the diamond. Swing: Hitting out of a slightly open stance, O’Conner has relaxed hands at the plate that rest on top of his shoulder, with his elbow up and parallel with the ground. He has a very slight timing step, and a medium size stride that he controls well by keeping his hands back and in line with his back knee and head. Very distinct rotational hitter, O’Conner has plus bat speed and maintains good athletic posture from his load to the point of contact. He rotates his back shoulder extremely well through the point of contact. This keeps his elbow in the ‘Power L’ position, resulting in quite an impressive compact swing for a high school bat. O’Conner uses his quick hips to his advantage, and his back knee is bent 90 degrees at the point of contact (indicating he’s rotating cleanly while maintaining good balance and weight distribution). He also has good hip/shoulder separation, which is the foundation of the plus bat speed and impressive loft. The momentum O’Conner generates in his swing carries through to his post-contact extension and easy follow-through, which is remarkably similar to Manny Ramirez’s. Defense: Two things immediately stand out about O’Conner’s defensive game are his excellent arm strength and lightning quick release. He has been clocked in the mid-90s on the mound, and carries that arm strength into the field. His range is merely adequate, but he makes up for it in part with his quick release and in part with his agility. O’Conner moves his feet well and centers on the ball, positioning himself well for rough hops. He’s also proficient on both sides of the double play. To maximize his defensive production, he will need to learn to be more aggressive coming in on the ball, as well as fielding through the ball more regularly, as he has a tendency to wait back (though his quick release and arm strength minimize the negative results some). He should have the athleticism to stick at short or even slide behind the plate, as a pro. Motion: Throwing out of a high ¾ arm slot, O’Conner comes at hitters with a high leg lift, and continues to drop and drive on his way to the plate. Upon doing so, his shoulders fly open before his hips, often resulting in a lack of command. Instead of breaking his hands towards second base, O’Conner loses deception by cuffing the ball behind him towards first base. His arm action is a bit worrisome, as well. He’s late and breaks his hands with his elbows, which is often an indicator of a potential future injury. Upon foot strike, his hips are already fully rotated, causing his arm to play catch-up, creating unnecessary stress on his shoulder/elbow. He lands on his front foot with plant-leg bent, which is a good thing. However, he doesn’t generate the maximum amount of power because he doesn’t push off the rubber as hard as his velocity indicates. More of a thrower than a pitcher at this point in time. He finishes falling off towards first base, placing him in an awkward fielding position. Stuff: Fastball – O’Conner’s fastball compares favorably to his peers — a prep class flush with power arms. He sits around 91-92 but can dial it up to the mid-90s. Presently, it does not have much life. Command is below average. Curveball – O’Conner’s curveball has good 11-5 bite and sits in the 74-77 range. Still inconsistent, it can flatten a little and his command of the pitch fluctuates with his ability to find the release point. Change-up – Didn’t flash his change, but it is a known bullet in his arsenal — reputation for being a work-in-progress.
Projected Position: SS/C Suggested Draft Slot: Mid- to Supplemental-1st Round Career: Statistics: GRADING OUT (FUTURE): Motion: 30 (50) |
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Draft Preview List
I’m going to keep this up-to-date as I post my draft previews. This is the upcoming schedule of releases, as well as links to those already released:
Washington Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
Pittsburgh Pirates
Kansas City Royals
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Houston Astros – February 10
Oakland Athletics – February 11
New York Mets – February 12
Toronto Blue Jays – February 15
San Diego Padres – February 16
Chicago White Sox – February 17
Cincinnati Reds – February 18
Texas Rangers – February 19
Milwaukee Brewers – February 22
Tampa Bay Rays – February 23
Chicago Cubs – February 24
Los Angeles Angels – February 25
Florida Marlins – February 26
Boston Red Sox – March 1
San Francisco Giants – March 2
Minnesota Twins – March 3
St. Louis Cardinals – March 4
New York Yankees – March 5
Colorado Rockies – March 8
Seattle Mariners – March 9
Philadelphia Phillies – March 10
Detroit Tigers – March 11
Los Angeles Dodgers – March 12
Atlanta Braves – March 15
Weekend Column – The Scouting Glossary
Thanks to everyone for making yesterday’s posts wildly successful. We’re on pace for over 40,000 hits in February alone, and I know that things will heat up even more when the college and prep seasons start full swing. Pat Hickey will be bringing you his first major piece tomorrow morning, and I’m sure you’ll find it very interesting. In the meantime, here’s a little light reading for you in our weekend column.
I know that sometimes writers tend to write about what they’re knowledgeable about without explaining to newcomers the jargon they use. I include myself in that group. I’ve been guilty of writing scouting jargon over and over on this blog, and I think it’s time to do a little Scouting 101. Here’s a fun glossary of terms that you can look back to if you’re confused about something. I’ll link on the right-hand side of the blog below my contact link.
Anyway, here are some things you might want to know when reading my posts:
Tools
Tools are a general way of evaluating a player’s capabilities, both in the present and the future. The five tools are a player’s ability to hit for average (commonly known as the hit tool), hit for power (also known as raw power), run, field, and throw. Any time I reference a player’s tools, I’m speaking specifically about these five characteristics.
Skills
The difference between tools and skills is about how a player turns his natural tools into advantages on the baseball field. To read about John Sickels’ Seven Skills, click here. This is a great explanation of what skills truly are.
20-80 Scouting Scale
Any time you see me say that a player has a 40 arm or a 60 hit tool, I’m using a scale that the vast majority of scouts use. Some may change it to a simple 2-8 scale, taking out the zeros. This scale equates tools to a Major League average, which is deemed a 50 tool. A 50 hit tool means a player is an average Major League hitter. When you see me use words like “plus”, “minus”, or “above-average”, I’m using the scouting scale, just converting it to words. “Minus” is anything 40 or below. “Fringe-average” is 45. Average is, of course, 50. “Above-average” is 55. “Plus” is 60. “Plus-plus” is usually reserved for anything 65 or over, though some scouts reserve it for 70 and over. I generally use it for 65 and over, though I mention if I don’t.
Current/Future Tools
When discussing draft prospects, the discussion is really based on where a player will be in the future. For example, a hitter may be a 35 on the scouting scale, but I might refer to him as a potential average hitter. The scouting scale has two grades; the current grade and the future grade. In this situation, I’m referring to the player’s future grade. If I mention a player’s current grade, I would use the phrase, “his hit tool currently sits at 35.” It is important to distinguish between these two grades, as draft prospects are almost never close to where their future grade is. A scout has to be able to distinguish not only what his future grade might be, but also the difference between the current and future grades, as that shows how far the player has to go to reach their potential. A wider gap between the two numbers means a higher risk of the player being a bust, or at the very least end up below where their potential is.
Overall Future Potential (OFP)
OFP is the yardstick by which scouts measure how well a prospect influences all areas of the game. A true “five-tool” player will grade out very well in an OFP system, and it’s the standard in the industry. You find OFP by adding up the future grades of a player’s tools, then dividing by five, the number of tools you’ve graded. Anything over 50 on the OFP scale is supposed to signify someone that has potential to be an average or better Major League regular. 60 to 69 is supposed to signify someone that will be an above-average to star-level Major League player, and 70 and above is supposed to signify a superstar-level player. If I say a player has the potential to be a solid Major League regular, that means I’m saying his OFP is in the 50 to 55 level range. It gets a little trickier when scouts start adjusting for makeup and such, which is commonly done to make OFP seem more like what a scout thinks it should be. I don’t have any particular opinion on this, as makeup is a very important part that cannot be graded.
Makeup
Now that I’ve introduced the term makeup, I’m going to define it. Well, when it comes down to it, it can really be defined as just that. It. The thing that makes a player stand out from the rest, hopefully in a positive way. Makeup is seen as the characteristic that a player is born with that gives them the drive and balance to be a successful player, especially when dealing with the pressures of pro baseball. So when you hear me say things like “bad makeup,” I’m referring to some flaws a player may have in his character or past that may get in the way of success in the future. “Good makeup” usually means that a player is a leader and a hard worker, and they’re going to get the most from their tools. It’s very tough to actually define, but when you see it, you get it.
Scouting Structure
Since I refer to scouts and such quite a lot, I feel I need to give you a quick rundown on how a typical scouting department works. At the top of a scouting department you have a scouting director. They generally only deal with scouts that cover aspects of amateur baseball. However, all scouting department differ in some way, and some teams combine the pro scouting and amateur scouting sides of things under a single scouting director. Either way, the typical scouting director is the sole person responsible for making the decisions pertaining to the draft. A general manager or his assistants may have a part in an early pick or two, but it is the scouting director that runs a draft. Below a scouting director come national crosscheckers. National crosscheckers are essentially the scouting director’s right-hand man. They go out and see the best players for the early rounds of the draft, based on the recommendations of their subordinates. The recommendations that the national crosscheckers then pass along are generally the way that the department forms their draft strategy. A scouting director generally only sees the best talents, with their national crosscheckers (or a single crosschecker) filling in the gaps for their information. Below national crosscheckers are regional crosscheckers. Teams typically have three regional crosscheckers covering the West, Midwest, and the East. Some teams vary that, but this is the traditional format. Below the regional crosscheckers are the area scouts, the scouts that do the vast majority of the local scouting. They see tons of prospects in their area, which can range anywhere from part of a state (in California, Florida, and sometimes Texas) to 5 or 6 states (in areas such as the Dakotas, Montana, etc.). They “turn in” prospects that they think are draft-worthy to their regional crosscheckers, who then decide who to see and they in turn “turn in” their reports to the national crosscheckers. Getting the flow yet? Back to the system, area scouts don’t have the time and energy to reach everywhere all at once, so they have to rely on a system of coaches and informants that essentially tell them who to see at what time of year. For instance, an area scout may get on the phone to a coach that just played a team that’s coming to their area soon, just to see whether a trip is necessary, and then who to focus on. Some scouts rely on a network more than others, but it’s an integral part of the scouting chain.
I’ll be adding to this glossary from time-to-time, and I’ll let everyone know as I update it. For now, just go ahead and study up, as there will be a quiz!
Half Dozen JuCos to Watch
Despite the fact that there are numerous places that cover the draft these days, one of the still-enduring mysteries of draft prospects are those in the junior college ranks. They aren’t easy to follow, their statistics aren’t always easy to track, and scouting reports can sometimes be vague. Luckily for 2010, three of the top JuCo prospects were renowned prep prospects, two of which did not sign at last year’s signing deadline as players picked in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft. This fact has renewed interest in JuCo players, and hopefully it will make JuCo coverage more extensive for 2010.
Here are some summaries of players you should be watching this spring, starting with the obvious trio of Bryce Harper, LeVon Washington, and Jake Eliopoulos. Eliopoulos likely won’t improve on his draft position from last year unless he has an excellent season, but Washington could easily move into the top ten for the 2010 draft. Harper’s still the favorite for the top overall pick, so that should really draw attention to the JuCo ranks as the season goes along.
Put the following players on your follow list this spring:
Bryce Harper, C, CC of Southern Nevada, Freshman
I put the class year down, because it’s important. When it comes to contract negotiations, JuCo freshmen are about as hard to sign as draft-eligible sophomores in the four-year college ranks. Harper not only has the best ceiling in this draft, but he also has considerable negotiating power as a player that will be 17 with another year of junior college left when draft day comes along. Add Scott Boras to the fire, and you probably have one of the top signing bonuses in draft history. Harper is indeed the top talent when it comes to tools in this draft. As I’m sure you’ve read multiple times, Harper has a pair of 80 tools, the highest rating a tool can receive. Those power and arm tools are outstanding and only a catastrophic arm injury could bring him down to anyone else’s level this spring. That’s a distinct possibility, as Harper has indeed asked his coach to pitch him in relief. He has all the pieces to be a plus hitter, though he has to adjust his timing mechanism in his swing to be able to hit pro caliber offspeed stuff. As I tweeted earlier in the week, Harper’s vulnerable to “hard in and soft away,” but he should be able to compensate at the JuCo level. His speed and fielding also might come in as plus, though the speed is more above-average (55) than plus. He’s playing all over the diamond this spring, including third base and the outfield, and he might have to go to one of those spots as a pro, so that bears watching. Overall, though, Harper is an elite talent that I’d have trouble passing over for the top pick if I were the Nationals.
LeVon Washington, OF, Chipola JC (FL), Freshman
As much as we’re familiar with Harper, Washington comes a fairly close second. That’s what happens when you go unsigned as a first-round pick. Tampa Bay took Washington with their first pick of 2009 at #30 overall, and though Washington’s demands were reportedly not extremely high, the Rays declined to sign him. Boras also represents Washington, so that might have had something to do with it, but I’m not ready to pass blame on to an adviser before looking more closely at the team. Washington features a pair of plus tools in his bat and legs, as he should hit for average and steal a high number of bases over the course of a pro career. The big question mark with him is whether his arm can come back this year. A year ago he struggled through shoulder surgery recovery, and he was limited to second base and designated hitter. I’m happy to announce that he’s back in center field with Chipola this spring, and his arm is getting closer to where it was before his injury. Back in the day it was a plus tool, so in the four months between now and the draft we could see a drastic improvement. That would easily raise Washington’s stock, as he’s hitting fairly well and is moving well on the bases so far in limited action in Florida. I expect him to move into the top ten with a good season, and while Boras is his agent, I don’t expect earth-shattering bonus demands similar to Harper’s. Washington has every reason to sign if he goes in the first round in back-to-back years, as there’s really no direction but down from there.
Jake Eliopoulos, LHP, Chipola JC (FL), Freshman
Eliopoulos became Washington’s teammate at Chipola when he decided to not sign as Toronto’s second round pick in 2009. While Eliopoulos doesn’t bring the best pure stuff to the table at the moment, he has a projectable body and good command of fairly advanced stuff for his age. His fastball is more of an 87-90 pitch, though he projects to sit around 90-92 when all is said and done. He commands his secondary offerings well, and his changeup is ahead of where most players just of high school have theirs. Those pieces all combined to make him a second round pick a year ago, though I don’t see much possibility of him improving upon his draft position for 2010. While Eliopoulos has the projection to add velocity to his frame, that bump usually doesn’t come at age 19. Therefore, scouts will essentially be seeing the same Eliopoulos they did a year ago, just against better competition in the Florida JuCo ranks. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a strong first-day candidate. His advanced arsenal has a good chance of succeeding this year, and the pressure is off of him at Chipola, too, as he’s not even their number one starter. His first outing showed a little early season jitters, and he was held to a 50 pitches, though he also flashed the ability to put away hitters with some quality offerings. I see him as a late second-round candidate again this year, and unless he sees himself gaining velocity for his sophomore campaign, he won’t have much incentive to return to Chipola for his sophomore year.
Damien Magnifico, RHP, Howard JC (TX), Freshman
Magnifico, like Washington and Eliopoulos, enters junior college with more notoriety than your average JuCo recruit. An unsigned fifth-rounder of the Mets from 2009, Magnifico relies on a plus fastball to dominate hitters. However, due to having such a plus fastball, his secondary stuff lags behind. That was one of the reasons why the Mets were reluctant to pony up his asking price a year ago, as he was asking somewhere in the neighborhood of $900,000 to $1 million. As a freshman, he’s not expected to fill the number one role on a team that had one of baseball’s most historic seasons last year in a run to a championship at the Junior College World Series. That role goes to Burch Smith, written about below. However, Magnifico is expected to carry his weight as Howard’s number two starter, and the workload will be a large step up from his prep days. His build isn’t the best for durability, as he “only” stands at 6’1’’ and carries 190 pounds, so one of the questions that needs to be answered this year is whether he can stand up to a more grueling pitching schedule for one of the top JuCo teams in the nation. I expect him to have a large amount of success due to the great history of Howard’s coaching system, so I see him improving his draft slot to perhaps the second or third round. He’ll also have the leverage of being a college freshman, so I could see another scenario where he asks for seven figures again. All told, though, Magnifico’s a solid talent that could be a number two starter in the big leagues if everything pans out.
Burch Smith, RHP, Howard JC (TX), Sophomore
Smith is a holdover from the historic 63-1 team from the 2009 season, and he’s their best returning arm and number one starter. Blessed with a pro body, Smith’s arm has really started to develop over the past year. He was drafted as a 49th-rounder a year ago by the Indians, but it was more of a follow approach than any real attempt at signing him. Undrafted out of high school, he had the talent to go in the mid-teens a year ago, but was simply only interested in returning to Howard after a wildly successful freshman campaign. The result has been a big step forward in terms of his velocity and command, and he could easily go in the first two rounds in June, higher than either Eliopoulos or teammate Magnifico. He’s committed to Oklahoma for next year, and while that might be an obstacle in some ways, I think he’ll be signable for slot in the first three rounds. He’ll only be two months past turning 20 on draft day, so there’s still significant upside here. His mature, yet projectable, 6’5’’, 195 pound frame should be able to handle another 25 pounds of muscle, and there might be number two upside in his low 90’s arm. His fastball isn’t as elite as his teammate’s, but it’s still plus due to good life and command, and it peaks around 95. He could easily be the top JuCo arm come June.
Tony Dischler, RHP, LSU-Eunice JC (LA), Sophomore
Dischler struggled mightily as a freshman at UL Monroe, and that prompted a transfer to LSU-Eunice, Louisiana’s premier JuCo feeder for its four year college counterparts. However, to UL Monroe’s chagrin, Dischler put on positive weight and strength after his transfer and he was popping mid-90s fastballs in the fall. The bad news is that Dischler’s fastball is pretty straight and can be hittable from time-to-time. His command isn’t great, and it also doesn’t really project to be anything above average in the future. That was his downfall while at UL Monroe, and he needs to shore up his mechanics if he’s to be successful this season while at Eunice. He has all the components to be a number two starter, though he hasn’t begun to quite put it together. His debut with Eunice against Pensacola JC showed his ability to dominate, but also his penchant for losing command, as he went four innings, only allowing a run on two hits, but also walking three and striking out only one. Without the downhill plane his fastball gets due to his 6’4’’, 200 pound frame, it would be tough for Dischler to be successful. However, with a body that’s attractive to pro scouts and a fastball that could already be rated as plus, he should draw first-day draft interest. If the birth date on his baseball cube page is correct, and I haven’t had a chance to confirm it, then Dischler is the same age as college juniors from this class, making his signability less of an issue and his scholarship for next year is only to minor program UL Lafayette. His lack of refinement and proven product is a worry, but the components are hard to resist.
These are just a half dozen players to keep an eye on, and I’ll give you more names to watch as you go along. Just as a reference, this is about what you should expect in the form of writeups for the 2010 MLB Draft Notebook. They’ll include short snippets about a player’s history, tools or stuff, and where I expect them to go and their signability. All these things are important to consider when evaluating a draft prospect.
If you like the writeups you see here, pre-order the 2010 MLB Draft Notebook now, and you’ll get over 750 writeups just like these for your perusal in a convenient PDF format. It will be good for draft day and beyond, as you look for reports on the players your favorite team drafts.
A weekend column on the scouting scale will be up tomorrow as a weekend column, which are broader editorial pieces that I’ll write discussing areas of scouting or drafting during the weekend of the season. Follow me on Twitter, and I’ll provide you updates on players during weekends, as I probably won’t do full writeups during weekends.
Hope you guys have a great weekend, and be sure to continue to check in here on MLB Bonus Baby, and tell your friends about the great content you can only get for free here.
Draft Preview – Kansas City Royals
Next up in the draft preview series is the Kansas City Royals and their scouting director J.J. Picollo. Picollo’s latest history outside of the 2009 draft was in player development, but if you dig back far enough, you can look at his history as an area scout in the mid-Atlantic from 2000 to 2002.
Owner: David Glass, bought club in 2000
General Manager: Dayton Moore, hired in June 2006
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo, first draft was 2009
Looking Back
2000 Draft: Mid-Atlantic Area Scout with Atlanta Braves
1. Aaron Herr, SS, Hempfield HS (PA), #40 Overall: Herr is the son of former Major Leaguer Tommy Herr, and most of his value was wrapped up in the experience of having those bloodlines. He didn’t stand out for tools, but was considered more refined than an average prep. Following players selected: Jason Stokes, Tagg Bozied, Bobby Hill. Signing bonus: $850,000.
2. Bubba Nelson, RHP, Riverdale Baptist HS (MD), #51 Overall: I read a book about Braves scouting from this draft, and Nelson had a big part in it. He wasn’t the most highly touted prep arm, as he was a hitting prospect, but this was a solid pick for draft position, though he turned out to be a lesser pro than expected. Following players selected: Tim Hummel, Chris Narveson, J.D. Durbin. Signing bonus: $675,000.
3. Kevin Cust, OF, Immaculata HS (NJ), #340 Overall: Meet Jack Cust’s brother. Seriously. Kevin had a stellar prep career, though he was less refined than most prep bats. He was out of pro baseball after only a couple years in the minors after signing as a draft-and-follow. He now works at his brother’s baseball academy. Following players selected: Pat Magness, Jason Kubel, Antoine Cameron. Signing bonus: Unknown.
Other Notable Selections: None.
2001 Draft: Mid-Atlantic Area Scout with Atlanta Braves
1. Billy McCarthy, OF, Rutgers, #195 Overall: McCarthy was a solid college hitter with average tools that fit well as an organizational player for the Braves. McCarthy was Picollo’s first sign in the 2001 draft, this being the sixth round. He topped out in AAA before leaving the pros. Following players selected: David Cash, Matt Vorwald, Sergio Mitre. Signing bonus: $120,000.
2. Anthony Lerew, RHP, Northern Senior HS (PA), #345 Overall: Lerew was Picollo’s next sign in the 11th round. Lerew wasn’t widely scouted, and this was about where most expected him to go. He’s obviously outperformed expectations so far, having reached the Major League level. Following players selected: Derin McMains, Kaulana Kuhaulua, Jason Blanton. Signing bonus: Unknown.
3. Kevin Barry, RHP, Rider (NJ), #435 Overall: Barry was a 14th rounder that had gone unsigned the previous year as a 15th rounder. College seniors are pretty common in this area of the draft, and he was seen as a middle reliever at best at the time. Turns out the scouting consensus was correct. Following players selected: Jeffrey Timmons, Brett Lawson, Kevin Hairr.
Other Notable Selections: None.
2002 Draft: Mid-Atlantic Area Scout with Atlanta Braves
1. Dan Meyer, LHP, James Madison, #34 Overall: Picollo’s only high-round pick of the 2002 draft, Meyer was a supplemental first rounder with talent that was perhaps a round lower than this draft slot. He was drafted due to his ability to move faster through the system and was part of the Tim Hudson deal that sent Hudson to the Braves from Oakland. Following players selected: Jeremy Brown, Chadd Blasko, Steve Obenchain. Signing bonus: $1,000,000.
Other Notable Selections: None.
2003 Draft: Mid-Atlantic Area Scout with Atlanta Braves
1. Asher Demme, RHP, South Lakes HS (VA), #187 Overall: Demme was a fairly projectable right-hander that was expected to go somewhere in this range as a signable prep arm. His fastball graded out as about average at the time, and he featured a solid curveball, though his refinement left something to be desired. Following players selected: Brian Henderson, Brian Montalbo, Matt Vasquez. Signing bonus: $160,000.
2004 Draft: Mid-Atlantic Area Scout with Atlanta Braves
No Selections from area.
2009 Draft: $7.0 Million Budget
1. Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats (TX), #12 Overall: Crow was an unsigned first rounder from 2008, and he was expected to go in the first half of the first round again in 2009. He was seen as closed to a finished product, and this was a very solid pick. He should see the majors very soon. Following players selected: Grant Green, Matt Purke, Alex White. Signing bonus: $1,500,000*.
2. Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC), #91 Overall: Myers was a first-round talent that fell due to high bonus demands. The Royals had been connected to Myers for their first-round pick leading up to June, but when Crow was available Myers fell. This was a great pick, and though it cost them a pretty penny, Myers was worth the money. Following players selected: Justin Marks, Robbie Erlin, Joe Gardner. Signing bonus: $2,000,000.
3. Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson, #122 Overall: Dwyer was the rare draft-eligible college freshman, and he was expected to extract as much money from that as possible. He had a first-round arm with third-round refinement, and he held out for a highly overslot bonus. This was a great pick for getting a great talent in the fourth round. Following players selected: Max Stassi, Andrew Doyle, Kyle Bellows. Signing bonus: $1,450,000.
4. Louis Coleman, RHP, LSU, #152 Overall: Coleman was a senior arm that started for LSU as their best arm outside of 2010 prospect Anthony Ranaudo. He was picked as a reliever, and though he was expected to go around this range, he was very affordable to sign. Solid pick. Following players selected: Steve Parker, Nick McBride, Austin Adams. Signing bonus: $100,000.
5. Cole White, RHP, New Mexico, #182 Overall: White was a fresh face on the prospect scene during his junior year, and he was fairly new to pitching entering his draft year. He has a arm that is a bit more live than Coleman, though this is about where both were expected to go. Following players selected: Ryan Ortiz, Ruben Sierra Jr., Ben Carlson. Signing bonus: $100,000.
Other Notable Selections: RHP Dusty Odenbach (8th), Connecticut, $150K bonus; 1B Geoff Baldwin (10th), Grand Junction HS (CO), $100K bonus; OF Lane Adams (13th), Red Oak HS (OK), $225K bonus; LHP Crawford Simmons (14th), Statesboro HS (GA), $450K bonus.
The Royals have about as scouting experience in their front office as any front office in all of baseball. Though Picollo has less experience than most scouting directors, he’s surrounded by a wealth of scouting talent, including former long-time Phillies scouting director Mike Arbuckle. Dayton Moore, Dean Taylor, Art Stewart, Donnie Williams, Brian Murphy, Louie Medina, Pat Jones, Mike Toomey, Gene Watson, Lonnie Goldberg, and Scott Sharp all have extensive scouting experience, and they’re all in the front office in Kansas City at the moment. This is on top of the usual scouting structure that the Royals employ. The one difference that Kansas City has is that Picollo is also in charge of the player development side of things, so he handles all things involving young players, which is a lot to handle. Most teams split the scouting and player development sides of things so that their scouting director isn’t overworked, but the Royals believe this is a positive structure. Since it’s a little early to pick up on trends for this draft, considering Picollo was only simply turning in times as an area scout, the only thing I can say is that Picollo seems to prefer either a very toolsy prep player or a very finished college player. Crow, Coleman, White, and Meyer match that on the college side, and Myers, Herr, and Nelson fit on the prep side. Dwyer might be seen as more a prep player, and he’s unique in his draft situation anyway. Overall, the trends aren’t quite apparent, but Picollo seems to be using the extensive experience in the front office well.
Draft budgeting has been healthy in recent years in Kansas City. Starting in Moore’s first real draft year in 2007, the Royals have been near or above $7 million in annual draft spending, with 2008’s $10+ million budget standing out as one the greatest drafts in terms of spending in recent memory. The common theme has been that the Royals have been drafting in the top half of each draft. Last year’s #12 slot came after picking at numbers two and three respectively for 2007 and 2008. The Royals are again in the top five for 2010, coming in at number four overall. Their other picks will come in at numbers 54, 86, 119 and every 30 picks after that, assuming that Rod Barajas signs a Major League contract with another team before the draft. Since the Royals don’t have any extra picks, I expect a fair amount of overslot bonuses handed out in later rounds again this year, but I also expect a fair amount of the budget to be handed to whoever they pick at number four. The common theme in recent Kansas City spending has been drafting the best first-rounder available, regardless of price. You can argue that Buster Posey or another 2008 product was better than Eric Hosmer, but Hosmer was tops on their board, though under a different scouting director. Mike Moustakas got $4 million, Hosmer $6 million, and last year’s pick Aaron Crow received a Major League contract. All signs point to them spending $7+ million again this year with an expensive first round pick.
At this moment I have the Royals picking whichever of the Harper/Ranaudo/Taillon group that falls to them at number four. It could be any order. Assuming that Harper goes first overall, which isn’t a sure thing but is how the boards currently stand, and the Pirates stay away from the prep arm in Taillon, it really depends on if the Orioles want Taillon at number three. The Pirates have other options in Christian Colon, Deck McGuire, and LeVon Washington, and my latest mock has Pittsburgh choosing Colon, meaning Ranaudo could be a logical choice here, though the Orioles would have a tough time choosing between Ranaudo and Taillon. I think the Royals will end up with either Taillon or Ranaudo in my opinion, and they’d be willing to pay Harper’s price in all likelihood. Other options could be LeVon Washington, A.J. Cole, Deck McGuire, and Dylan Covey. Looking beyond the first round, I’d look for signable prep arms or finished college products. Taijuan Walker might be a potential target, as could Michael Choice, Justin Grimm, and Jarrett Parker. Other later names to watch include Josh Spence, Matt Lipka, Evan Grills, and Matt den Dekker.
*Bonus information came from BA.
What do you guys think? What will the Royals do?
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